Climate change analysis by using sen's innovative and trend analysis methods for western black sea coastal region of turkey

Abstract

Climate change are investigated by tracking temporal variation in meteorological parameters and oceanic records. The southern coast of Western Black Sea of Turkey is experienced evidential changing trend in climatic features due to the impact of global warming that significantly alter ambient temperature and wind circulations along the coast. It is extremely important to investigate the effect of climate change that causes this change for Western Black Sea Coast of Turkey. Therefore, this study aims to investigate climate change caused by global warming in sea surface temperatures and wind speeds of Western Black Sea Coast of Turkey. Coastal regions of Duzce, Zonguldak, Bartin, Kastamonu, and Sinop provinces in Western Black Sea are determined as main points. Wind speed, wind direction, and sea temperature data at those main points are used in study. Data are obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The length of data is 40 years (1979-2018). Analysis of these data is investigated with Sen's Innovative and Trend Analysis Methods (Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho). Graphs created with Sen's Innovative method are classified into three regions (Low, Medium and High). Trend analysis methods are classified as increasing and decreasing. As a result of study was observed increasing trends at high level of wind speeds (15-25 m/s), in medium levels of wind direction (120-160 Deg.) and at high levels of Sea Surface Temperature (15-27 celcius) with Sen's Innovative Method. Decreasing trends were observed in daily analyzes of wind speed with trend analysis methods. Sea surface temperature daily and annual analyzes were observed increasing trends. These increasing trends are expected to change both marine life, fish population, precipitation regime and tourism habits for the study area.