Statistical modeling of spatial and temporal vulnerability of groundwater level in the Gaza Strip (Palestine)
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTarih
2021Yazar
Al-Najjar, HassanÇeribaşı, Gökmen
Doğan, Emrah
Qahman, Khalid
Abualtayef, Mazen
Ceyhunlu, Ahmet İyad
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The water supply in the Gaza Strip substantially depends on the groundwater resource of the Gaza coastal aquifer. The climate changes and the over-exploiting processes negatively impact the recovery of the groundwater balance. The climate variability is characterized by the decline in the precipitation by -5.2% and an increase in the temperature by +1 degrees C in the timeframe of 2020-2040. The potential evaporation and the sunshine period are expected to increase by about 111 mm and 5 hours, respectively, during the next 20 years. However, the atmosphere is predicted to be drier where the relative humidity will fall by a trend of -8% in 20 years. The groundwater abstraction is predicted to increase by 55% by 2040. The response of the groundwater level to climate change and groundwater pumping was evaluated using a model of a 20-neuron ANN with a performance of the correlation coefficient (r)=0.95-0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE)=0.09-0.21. Nowadays, the model reveals that the groundwater level ranges between -0.38 and -18.5 m and by 2040 it is expected to reach -1.13 and -28 m below MSL at the northern and southern governorates of the Gaza Strip, respectively.