Investigation of the variability applying classical (MK-SR) and modern (ITTA-TPSC) trend methods to meteorological parameters of Marmara Basin in Turkey

Abstract

Scientific studies for countries experiencing climate change have accelerated recently. Turkey is among the countries experiencing climate change. Studies carried out for this country or its basins are of great importance both for the basin and the country. Therefore, Marmara Basin, where Turkey's population density is highest and industrialization is at the most advanced level, is selected in this study. The length of meteorological data is 45 years. The analysis of these data is made with Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR), which are classical trend methods, and Innovative Triangle Trend Analysis (ITTA) and Trend Polygon Star Concept (TPSC), which are modern trend methods. When the studies on Marmara basin are examined, there is no study that includes these four methods. Therefore, this study stands out in this respect. Because these analysis methods will reveal a new idea by applying them to hydro-meteorological data within the basin area. Before applying MK method, serial correlation method is applied to the meteorological parameter data of all stations. When the analysis results are examined; a general increasing trend is observed in precipitation data for ITTA and TPSC methods. No trend is observed in precipitation data for MK and SR methods. A general increasing trend is observed in temperature data for ITTA, MK and SR methods. However, a generally decreasing trend is observed in temperature data for TPSC method. While there is generally no trend in relative humidity data for MK and SR methods, an increasing trend is observed for ITTA and TPSC methods.